By Michael Tappin, Honorary Fellow, Politics department, Keele University. This article first appeared as a Personally Speaking column in the Stoke Sentinel in October 2024.

On November 5th, some 240 million voters will have the opportunity to vote for the next President and Vice-President of the United States, but in reality, only a small amount of those votes will be influential. The major party Presidential candidates in the election are for the Democratic Party, Kamala Harris and for the Republican Party, Donald Trump. For the first time since 1968 neither party will have a candidate who is the incumbent President. As well as the two major parties contesting the election there are candidates from the Green and Libertarian Parties, but they will only get a few votes across the country.

'Why does the election matter for the UK?' is a question I’ve heard many times over the years and the reality is that with every new President comes policy changes and consequences for industry, commerce, climate and international relations. The individual who is elected sets the central direction of military and economic policy, not only for the United States but the world.

Some years ago, on a business trip to the States I visited Tuscon, Arizona, with a very senior executive for Wedgwood. There, we went to the massive Goldwater department store to look at the ceramic display and in pride of place was a big display of Wedgwood china. My Wedgwood partner was not happy at how the display was set out and asked to see the store manager. He then told him how Wedgwood wanted the display set out and that we would be returning to see if it had been put right the next day – and it was. Staffordshire ceramics mattered in the US then, and it still matters now.

Ceramics remains a very important industry with Britain having a reputation for quality, and the best example of that is here in North Staffordshire. Tapping into the high-end market across the Pond is big business for Stoke-on-Trent ceramic firms, with many of them regularly exporting products to America. But if Donald Trump wins the election, he has promised to put import duties up by 10 per cent. That policy could have a big impact on our local ceramic industry, so you can see how the outcome of the US election can have implications for businesses thousands of miles away in a city like Stoke-on-Trent.

It's important to understand how Presidential candidates are elected. The winner is not decided by the person who gets the most votes in the election. In 2016 Hilary Clinton won the popular vote but Donald Trump was elected President. The Presidential election is determined by the person who wins the most votes in the Electoral College. As in the UK where some Parliamentary seats are seen as "safe", the same applies in the US. Some states are seen as Democratic strongholds, such as California or New Jersey, while others like Alaska and North Dakota are Republican strongholds. However, some states are seen as swing states or battleground states – and it is these that will ultimately decide the election next month.

This year the swing states are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. These are the states where the election will be settled and you will see both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris concentrating their spending and campaigning across them.

Looking at recent polls taken on October 5th, Harris is leading Trump with 48.8 per cent support to 45.9 per cent. It is going to be a close race and with Trump trailing in the polls, I would not be surprised to see the campaign get dirtier. Indeed, Trump's rhetoric is taking on a darker tone. In Prairie du Chien he tested a new insult directed at Harris: "Joe Biden became mentally impaired. Kamala was born that way."

So who will win the Presidency in November? The polling organisation 538 Interactive predicts a Harris win in the Electoral College 277 votes to Trumps 261. The big question is, how will Donald Trump react if he loses to Harris? Given what happened in 2020 when he lost to Joe Biden, I would not be surprised if he repeats claims that the election was 'stolen' from him. I predict there will be court battles and challenges in the "swing" states if he loses – this is an election that could run and run.

The Chinese have a proverb "may we live in interesting times" and American politics is certainly that right now.